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Good evidence can support a conclusion without guaranteeing it

Inductive reasoning moves from evidence to a probable conclusion.

An inductive argument supports a conclusion without making it logically certain. Its strength depends on the quality, relevance and coverage of the evidence. Observing several examples may help, but examples drawn from one narrow setting can support only a narrow conclusion.

New evidence can weaken a previously reasonable inference. That makes the wording of a conclusion important: “this often happens under these conditions” may fit the evidence better than “this always happens.” The confidence should match what the observations can actually support.

A small example

If every bus you took last week was late, you have evidence about those journeys. You do not yet know that every route is always late.

Keep in mind

A large number of poorly chosen observations does not automatically make an inference strong.

Source & attribution

Introduction to Philosophy — Types of Inferences

OpenStax contributors · OpenStax, Rice University

CC BY 4.0. Rewritten as a self-contained explanation; the example and reflection are Vakataka additions. Written and edited with AI assistance. No source images reproduced.

Source edition: 2024-03-01T20:57:48Z

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